Personal and academic blog. Explores the borderlands between rhetoric, politics and intelligence.


Guerilla War in Iraq escalating?

Today Washington Post writes about the recent insurgent attack on Abu Ghraib. It showed considerable tactical prowess and almost looked like a regular way of war-fighting.

'Ground fighters among the insurgents advanced only after the mortar and rocket assault had ended and attacked the prison from two directions simultaneously. The smaller of the thrusts was apparently a feint to divert attention from the main attack [...]'

Is this an escalation of the war? In Maoist theory on 'People's war' there are three phases. ' In the first phase, the guerrillas gain the support of the population through attacks on the machinery of government and the distribution of propaganda. In the second phase, escalating attacks are made on the government's military and vital institutions. In the third phase, conventional fighting is used to seize cities, overthrow the government and take control of the country.'

Hmm - I don't think Iraq is very comparable to 1940s China. But nevertheless - the attacks on US military installations have been a weak area in the 'Al Qaeda' image since the USS Cole attack in 1998. So it would be obvious if this kind of attack would be sought after by more ideological minded fighters.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Should there be truth adhered to such suggestions, one could argue that the "third phase" has been initialized. The rebel seizure of Fallujah bears resemblance to the characteristics of the third phase mentioned by the author, as does - admittedly - the recent attack on infamous prison of Abu Ghraib.

However, it is worth noting the decisive defeat suffered by the rebels attacking Abu Ghraib. Several coalition soldiers were injured, but the firefight did result in an utter defeat of the iraqi insurgents - tactical approach or no.

Still, the author brings up a very interesting issue. The implications that the main body of Iraqi insurgents are in no way linked to Al Qaeda are numerous indeed. But who, then, are these insurgent forces? One could assume they are made up of former Iraqi soldiers in support of ex-dictator Saddam Hussein. (Such forces are, among coalition elements, known as FRE's.. Former Regime Extremists) and they.. Alas, coffee's ready


14/4/05 10:53


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