Personal and academic blog. Explores the borderlands between rhetoric, politics and intelligence.


How to disarm Iran?

New York Times brings an interesting analysis today about the progress in negotiating with the Iranian government about its nuclear capabilities. Because of the difficulties in striking all nuclear facilities in the country it seems that a diplomatic solution is the most viable. NY Times describes how US-EU is using a bad cop - good cop tactics towards the Iranians.

But a most interesting thing that is omitted in the article is the status of the Israeli nuclear programme. In a traditional analysis of power politics it would be obvious to see in what context the Iranians are seeking to upgrade their capabilities. Of course it could be argued that it is always just nice to have a nuclear weapon sitting on the shelf, especially if you have a history of great external hostilities. The Israeli nuclear programme might be for defensive purposes only - as most nuclear programmes probably are, but it is a heavy advantage for them and the Iranians probably take this into account.

The bottom line of this is: How are US-EU going to offer Iran anything that could compensate for the unbalance that they might feel towards Israel? Especially when there is no diplomatic connections here - and with Washington still not recognising the regime in Tehran? Perhaps they hope to stall for time so that the demographic revolution can take its hold. Or as NYT writes:

"Analysts of the Iranian political scene also point out that many in the American government view a growing and energized Iranian civil society, in particular the young and women, as an agent of change toward a democratic Iran."

The only problem is that so far these changes don't have an influence on the foreign policy or the development of nuclear arms.


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