Nis Leerskov Mathiesen

Let the students pull the cart

noreply@blogger.com (Nis) — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 23:22:00 +0000

During my time as a graduate student at both King's College London and the University of Copenhagen, I always was a bit puzzled why established academians wouldn't utilise the vast resource of student brainpower and work-eagerness that was tappable, right at their feet.

Usually, when you are a student, you choose courses on what you think is either a)interesting or b) can be beneficial to your future. This in turn means that in institutions with a high number of focused and bright students (KCL fitting the description best of the institutions I frequented), you will have a mass of devoted brains gathering around a subject that the professor is often himself deeply interested in.

Why not, more often, solicit papers to some or all of the students, to further your own research? Why not put a class of eager students in front of your own cart and let them pull you a bit, while showing them that their work is used for something other than just grading, and then - degrading in your basement till you have to move house at some point.

The Strauss Center at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs has done just that. Putting a number of MA students in a class and letting them research for an excellent report on the Hormuz Strait and it's strategic implications for oil flows out of the Gulf.

As a general introduction, with spats of in-depth analysis - it is a perfect example of open source collaboration. If I ever get a fat university position, I'd like to work with students in this way.

The fear of a Terror Gang Planet

noreply@blogger.com (Nis) — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 19:36:00 +0000

The Small Wars Journal presents an article by Robert Killebrew on the merging of gang warfare and terrorism. He points out that this is a latent risk, which is not publicly acknowledged at the moment, but poses a great danger to national security.

I have had the same musings regarding the illegal firework networks in Copenhagen. But the concern that Copenhagen's criminals might aid terrorists is so much more underscored by the recent wave of shootings taking place between immigrant gangs and bikers. I, for one, just need to turn the corner and look at the bullet holes in the nearby net caf� that was sprayed the other day.

It is remarkable that we fear terroristic attacks on Danish soil every day and only have had a few aborted plots to show for it - but that with a few days of provocations, suddenly the streets are awash with weapons and shots are being fired at random.

Imagine if you were able to energise this criminal activity in way of terrorist activity. That would be a nice solution for someone wishing to conduct a low cost, low signature terrorist attack. The glaring unprofessionalism of the Danish immigrant gangs is probably both an advantage and a disadvantage in this case. Stupid people make stupid decisions.

However, it isn't so likely. Criminals and terrorists are two different species. One is fueled by economic incentives, the other by a more intangible altruistic/ideological drive. Thus the real danger is not a convergence of the two categories, but of the practical utility. If criminals are to gain from terrorists or their sponsoring networks, why not use some of that energy on something else rather than the bikers?

Buzz on the blogs: How to poison the Danish water supply

noreply@blogger.com (Nis) — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 09:15:00 +0000

According to Jamestown Foundation, a discussion thread on a jihadist forum has dealt with how to poison European, especially Danish, watersupplies.

This is a returning idea/fear with jihadist/publics that pops up with regular intervals. Two years ago, some Danish kids pryed open a water main and poured in some rat poison they had found in an abandoned house. This example shows two important aspects of this discussion:

* First off: It is a relative vulnerable piece of infrastructure, hard to fully protect.
* It takes enormous amounts of poison to do any kind of damage in a large, public water distribution system.

However, with issues like these, our perception of risk makes plots where there is an element of "unseen" danger a favorite with terrorists. With a relative low impact in terms of actual damage, plots that inflict a sort of low level influence to a large number of people can still cause great panic. These low impact-great probability risks are the stable of intelligent terrorist planning and a public relations nightmare.

UPDATE 15-09 08:02
The Danish media have picked up the story now as a short piece from Ritzau where someone have done some late night browsing. There isn't really a critica a critical qualifier, though. It might be added if it turns out to be a slow news-day.

A mujahedeen greeting to Denmark

noreply@blogger.com (Nis) — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 20:51:00 +0000

I really wonder where the Danish journalists have done their research, when they have covered the recent As Sahab video detailing the attack on the Danish embassy in Pakistan. It still seems to me than none have made the effort to obtain a copy of the movie, only regurgitating intelligence services and companies like SITE. (Politiken, Berlingske, Jyllandsposten, TV2)

If they had looked for it out where you can find it, they would probably have had a field day with a lot of the interesting details:

* The high-quality footage of the Danish PM's New Year speech praising the US
* The details on Kurt Westergaard
* and not least, the suicide bombers parting message to Danes:

Leaning on a white little compact car (that he later blew up), like an advertisement for a used-car dealership, he delivers this message:

"As for my final message to the worshippers of the cross in Denmark: I tell them: Allah permitting, this isn't the first nor the last retaliation and Allah permitting, Shaykh Usama Bin Laden won't abandon you nor will the Mujahideen abandon you. Allah permitting, we will wipe you from the face of the earth. And we warn everyone whose soul entices him to curse the Prophet (on whom be peace) that these car bombs will be their faith, Allah willing. Finally I dedicate this song to my precious mother, who will - Allah willing - be the first I interceed for on the Day of Resurrection, if Allah accepts me as a martyr.

With the blinkers going, he then proceeds to sing a nasheed to his mother.
rhe
I won't link to the video here, but with a bit of research you can find it two steps down the usual As Sahab distribution-link. It's really worth the effort if you want a deeper understanding and an explanation from these "sad-eyed", eloquent militants.

As Sahab video explaining the attack on the Danish Embassy

noreply@blogger.com (Nis) — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 09:22:00 +0000

As Sahab, the professional AQ media outlet has released a video, detailing the attack on the Danish embassy in Karachi. They advertise for it using this nifty banner:

The video itself (as always hard to come by if you're late) shows various clips, including ones with the illustrator Kurt Vestergaard, the suicide bomber involved in the plot and Mustafa Abu al-Yazid (who were alledgedly killed earlier this year - and was behind the attack).

You can see the thumbs from the video here:

Coercing to persuade

noreply@blogger.com (Nis) — Wed, 28 May 2008 13:17:00 +0000

The ever-well-read Wired "Danger Room" blog writes a little post on how artillery has been used to pave the way for talks with local sheiks in the Diyala province of Iraq. This is an aspect of persuasion that has always interested me. At times you need to use violence (a definite no-no in all rhetorical thinking, ancient and modern) as a pretext for being able to persuade and having a constructive debate.

I'm not studied enough on Clausewitz but this aspect of warfare is either an affirmation or a qualification of his famous (and over-used) dictum: War is the continuation of politics.

In the modernist interpretation (where I think we should place C. himself), this meant that war took over when politics had exhausted it's role. In the post-modern interpretation, it means that war is just politics by other means. And this last interpretation is very much in tune with the thoughts about warfare in the fourth generation warfare, new wars, etc. As the classical concept of states warring each other for power crumbles to something much more messy and sub-statey, this mixture of warfare and persuasion will take on prominence. Not that it is a new genre. In a way you could see the proxy wars of the Cold War era as an aspect of same persuasion: "Look how much destruction we can rain down on you, when you attack me. Care to have a chat about our mutual future?"

Danish political micromanagement in action

noreply@blogger.com (Nis) — Wed, 14 May 2008 12:52:00 +0000

It now seems that the Danish military will get to keep one of two types of cluster bombs that it owns, after a debate in the Danish Parliament, Folketinget. Cluster bombs have been the symbol of careless militarism and indifference towards civilians, as they have a tendency to leave some of their submunitions unexploded, for kids and others in the war zone to pick up. Recently the pension funds in Denmark were revealed to invest in companies that make this still popular weapon that is used to destroy vehicles, small buildings - and other people of course. Most of them quickly relocated their money and made sure to publicly announce that move.

Now the Military gets to keep its munitions despite a Norwegian report that claims that 10% of even the best bombs leave unexploded submunitions.

But it comes at a price. A broad range of parties have agreed to vote for the deal, under the condition that the government informs them whenever the clusterbombs are to be used. Please replay that scenario on your inner screen.

With this piece of deal-making, the parties have tried to tackle a touchy, symbolic weapons system by submitting it to parliamentary oversight. And as Denmark allegedly never has used cluster bombs in live missions, it seems to be a safe symbolic action to take for all involved parties, showing themselves as concerned, yet responsible.

But deals like this introduces a strange, delusional relationship between military and politicians. In effect, politicians are put in charge of tactical decisions. This is not a new phenomenon. During the Vietnam War, President Johnson and his staff were picking out targets in the air raids of "Operations Rolling Thunder" against North Vietnam. They did this because they wanted to avoid greater political repercussions and because aerial photos made it seemingly easy to ring a building or two on the map.

However, politicians can't and shouldn't make tactical decisions like that, even though they might have political repercussions. For the Military's sake and for their own sake. If the Danish Parliament ever had to sanction the use of the bombs, they shouldbe faced with the detailed explanation and defence of the decision afterwards. This would give politicians a more visible symbolic hand in actual conflict. But I think it would be too easy to push the responsibility down the line blaming the commanders or the people pushing the button, and then the gesture of parliamentary oversight would be truly delusional.

The decision is made tomorrow in the Folketing

Danish UAV lost - in East Africa

noreply@blogger.com (Nis) — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 14:52:00 +0000

The 14th of March the Danish Admiral's Office sent out a brief press statement, telling that "Today the Navy chose to send home two persons from the Ocean Patrol Vessel THETIS after they against standing directives had flown an observation drone over land".

The drone crashed somewhere "10 kilometres northeast of Mombasa".

The THETIS participates in the UN programme running aid to Somalia. The site Danish Naval History had speculated why it had been sent off without its complementary Lynx helicopter that it usually carries on its normal tasks in the North Atlantic, but perhaps carrying the drones is a cheaper and more manageable solution so far from normal waters of patrol.

To me, this is a curious story of the Danish Defence's ongoing and troubled affair with UAV's. After having to scrap the entire Sperwer programme, the Raven was purchased on 11th September last year. I guess the reasoning would go: "We couldn't get the complicated stuff to work, lets buy something that is "plug-and-play", portable in a backpack".

It seems that this strategy has really worked. With my knowledge, the incident is probably just a sign of eagerness recklessness with an excited crew. But despite the Navy's tradition for being less formal than the Army, it is still a bit surprising that an expensive system (over 165.000 DKK total) like that is lost in a bout of afternoon fun. The operators must either have been very careless or lost control over the drone, as the stated range is just about 10 KMs. This also questions its usefulness on a naval ship at sea, I would hold, having a very limited range and flying-time.

Malignant persons would also point out the Diplomatic implications of Danish units conducting surveillance of Kenyan territory - but it doesn't seem that this side of the story has had any traction in public circulation so far.

Here's a map of the surroundings.

View Larger Map

The mysterious Israeli Airstrike: Revisited

noreply@blogger.com (Nis) — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 15:43:00 +0000

Last year, Israeli airplanes hit a target inside Syria - and the expected fuss over that incident, didn't materialise. This has led people to speculate that it was a nuclear facility, but not much is know.

Now, the New Yorker provides us with some quality journalism in digging deep into the story and revealing some of the contradictions that other media (and most of us bloggers) have raced past.

An interesting aspect of the article is how much information can be found in Open Sources and with some dedicated effort turned into usable intelligence.

Whatever was under construction, with North Korean help, it apparently had little to do with agriculture?or with nuclear reactors?but much to do with Syria?s defense posture, and its military relationship with North Korea. And that, perhaps, was enough to silence the Syrian government after the September 6th bombing.

A Strike in the Dark. What did Israel bomb in Syria? by Seymour M. Hersh

S�dan diskuterer man sikkerhedspolitik

noreply@blogger.com (Nis) — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 14:09:00 +0000

En rapport fra DIMS, udgivet i sidste m�ned, har fundet vej til mit skrivebord nu. Og det ser overordentligt interessant ud. Grundl�ggende pr�ver den at unders�ge hvordan den nye aktivistiske sikkerhedspolitik bliver skabt i Folketinget - og p�peger hvor den praksis bliver fundet for let.

Den tilgang til emnet rammer lige ned i mit interessefelt mellem kommunikation og sikkerhedspolitik og konklusionerne ser i h�j grad ud til at v�re i samklang med de ting jeg selv st�dte p� under interviews og research i den danske brug af InfoOps. Det ser ud som om debatten p� Borgen halter bag efter de strategiske realiteter. Men p� den anden side er dette den oplagte konklusion for enhver sikkerhedspolitiske observat�r, der ikke selv har valgkredsen i klemme i dag-til-dag realpolitik.

Under alle omst�ndigheder er det rart at se, at DIMS'en bidrager til den forsvarspolitiske forskning p� anderledes
"bl�de" faconer.

Vibeke Schou Tjalve og Anders Henriksen: Vi diskuterer jo ikke politik p� den m�de: Regeringen, Folketinget og sikkerhedspolitikken

Fra abstract:

Den nye aktivistiske og brede danske sikkerhedspolitik stiller krav til den m�de, hvorp� sikkerhedspolitikken koordineres og debatteres i det danske Folketing. Den nye sikkerhedspolitik fordrer, at man p� en og samme tid g�r det muligt b�de at centralisere og demokratisere den parlamentariske praksis. Og til det form�l b�r de danske politikere grundl�ggende �ndre deres parlamentariske kultur p� Christiansborg.

OSINT and social software

noreply@blogger.com (Nis) — Wed, 05 Mar 2008 15:00:00 +0000

Now the Canadian Forces warns their soldiers about using social software as this constitute a major source of the "enemy's" intelligence. Brig.-Gen. Peter Atkinson estimates that as much as 80 percent of their intelligence comes from the net.

This percentage has set off some fury over at Enthropic Memes, disputing the claim. And to me it also seems that the good Brigadier General is just regurgitating one of the most widespread OSINT memes, namely that 80 percent of all intelligence is gleaned from open sources. This is the type of information that can be thrown around without anyone actually bothering about finding a source. It might very well be true, but it comes off as if the Social Software and the internet has changed this from the days of the public library, and I don't think that's the case.

I think there is some validity to the claim, but on the other hand, the internet has also strengthened some aspects of Counter Terrorism, so you loose some, you win some.

Go home! But where?

noreply@blogger.com (Nis) — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 15:16:00 +0000

The political discussion in Denmark has taken a turn at ~~discussing~~ condemning Islamic fundamentalism. This happens after the recent spat of car-burnings by boys mainly of Arab background, the revealed murder plot directed against one of the cartoonists of Cartoon-Crisis fame and the ensuing flare of Cartoon-crisis 2.0.

Hizb ut Tahrir took the centre stage of this discussion after a protest march where they once again publicly stated their anti-democratic intention.

This spurred the age old question: Why have you come to Denmark, why don't you just go home? This time it was asked by among others the Minister for Justice Lene Espersen in a debate on TV2.

I think the question, when asked in connection to Moslems of a radical salafist leaning is misunderstood.

It implies that the countries that these people come from would be a better place to be if you fight for the Caliphate, the world-spanning empire, uniting the Moslem umma.

But the essence is that these guys believe in an utopia, a place that isn't there. This is in many aspects the most powerful appeal of their movement: "We want to recreate a time of glory and justice and piousness". In this aspect Hizb ut Tahrir is similar to other totalitarianism's dreams of the Tausendj�hriges Reich or World Socialism. Of course a moslem country would be more permissive of some aspects of salafist dogma (such as incoorporating elements of Shaaria laws), but very often the political climate of these countries will be much more harsh for these organisations. And then it becomes obvious why you'd rather be in Denmark than in Syria. If you aim after utopia, your post address matters less and rationality of course will have you settle in the most permissive climate.

I don't support the idea that the organisation should be banned. It is radical and radicalizing, but as long as they are under special scrutiny, those views are better kept in the public and not chased further underground.

But that the Justice Minister can wonder why they just don't go home, hints that her understanding of the nature of utopian organisations lacks somewhat and I doubt she would have many reservations outlawing them.

New publications with a Danish view

noreply@blogger.com (Nis) — Fri, 08 Feb 2008 08:20:00 +0000

The Royal Danish Defence College is publishing a new series of briefs - probably in the effort of "scientificing" the organisation. There is a number of interesting subjects, The Taliban's Information Warfare written by RDDC's mr. INFOOPS Thomas Nissen, if of particular interest to me.

Asymmetric Naval Warfare

noreply@blogger.com (Nis) — Tue, 29 Jan 2008 14:38:00 +0000

A recent spat between the US Navy and the good ol' Iranian speed-boat has been widely reported. Read an interesting exposition on Iran's Doctrine of Asymmetric Naval Warfare here.

Sale is on in the shadow economy

noreply@blogger.com (Nis) — Fri, 07 Dec 2007 10:15:00 +0000

New Year in Copenhagen started this Monday. Or at least, the shooting did. It is a yearly event, when the first fireworks start flooding the streets and flashes and cracks ring out through the streets, increasing to a crescendo in the days around New Years eve. The debacle is not so much due to the usual kind bought in a store, that will light up or fizz along or shoot colourful balls of light, rather what's making the noise is the illegal stuff that will make big explosions, the magnitude of handgrenades or bigger.

I was rolling along with the first-born Monday night when in a matter of minutes I heard two large bangs, the first of the year.

It kind of indicates that the market has opened for illegal fireworks. And it is quite a large one indeed. Every year several confiscations are made in Denmark and most years also have an instance of illegal fireworks factories exploding, killing the owners. It seems that the demand for explosives (probably mainly among males 12-42) is so great that there is an incentive for a risky business, building or importing chrysantemum bombs and firecrackers.

Now, just imagine an entire illegal infrastructure in place for providing explosives for one month every year. Then couple it with a demand for explosives of other kinds. Then you have a network that will support all kinds of criminal activity. And that constellation might not be too far off. At least I remember when I thought illegal firecrackers was the best, hearing on the fringes that this guy or that would be able to get you mortar shells or hand-grenades. Never tried it out, so I don't know whether the network would actually be able to fetch.

New on the menu: Super-empowered individuals

noreply@blogger.com (Nis) — Sat, 01 Dec 2007 22:34:00 +0000

Terrorism is a field of study with a large mob of scientists, thinkers and hacks trying to cover a lot of ground, anticipating where the next 9/11 will take place or in what dimension terrorism will expand now.

A lot of the contemporary findings are fusing together, suggesting a future of terrorism along the lines of John Robb's Global Guerillas. The speculations are, that due to globalisation, technologisation and net-centric warfare/terror, terrorism is evolving into a swarmlike, open source kind of global insurgency. As John Robb's star is rising, due to some of the novel insights he has provided, an increasing number of the mob is running in his direction. The very culmination of this new drive in the terrorism-speculations, seems to be the notion of the "super-empowered individual". This is the "Lone Wolf" in a new, techological and media-mediated hide. This is the crazy school-shooter that inflicts mass casualties and public moral panic with a handful of bullets, or the disgruntled scientist with a vialfull of disease.

So far, it is a theoretical speculation, that might not really materialise anytime soon - just like the VMD-terrorism craze in the late 1990's. But it will generate a lot of writing, no doubt. And most of them will probably end with the same conclusion: there is nothing we can do, other than build more resilient societies.

The infestation spreads

noreply@blogger.com (Nis) — Fri, 30 Nov 2007 14:40:00 +0000

I have long been interested in the more cultural explanation of networks and the spread of terrorism. Now David Axe reports from Somalia on the discovery of Quassam-style rockets in Mogadishu, a weapon deviced by Hezbollah and Hamas and hitherto not found in Somalia.

The open-source warfare spreads DIY lethal technology to hotspots all over the world.

Navies for all...activists

noreply@blogger.com (Nis) — Wed, 21 Nov 2007 15:30:00 +0000

Navies have long been the very symbol of why it takes a nation-state to go to war. Traditionally, the logistics and manpower involved, as well as the more recent emphasis on ship-shore interface takes a heavy wallet. Furthermore, the strategy of sea-power is very much based on you protecting your sea lanes of communication or disrupting other states'. Clearly, any insurgency group or sub-state actor that wanted a punch for their pennies, would go for an army.

Or would they? Just as the Airforce's monopoly has been broken by fx LTTE's airforce and homemade UAV's, there are actually examples of sub-state groups that builds up a navy, when their objectives are at sea. LTTE is another good example, but this interesting article on Sea Shepherd from The New Yorker tells how activists were able to field a two-ship fleet with a helicopter to attack whalers in the Antarctic waters.

In the total opposite direction:

Sweden plans for a "old new" SIGINT ship - demonstrating classic nation-state capability, especially one of a neutral, self-dependent state that has to rely on its own intelligence in all aspects. Sweden has long been known for their strong SIGINT capabilities. As I came across once doing research, Denmark should actually also be able to send a SIGINT capable ship to sea (in the form of a STANDARD-FLEX type Flyvefisken class patrol-craft, equipped with the one available SIGINT/ELINT container), but I don't know if it ever happens.

Bin Laden Speech Archive updated

noreply@blogger.com (Nis) — Wed, 21 Nov 2007 15:20:00 +0000

A horrendous delay in putting up OBL's latest speeches is now corrected - and once again the archive will help you find the words and pictures of Osama Bin Laden:

The Bin Laden Speech Archive

Don't shout if you can nag

noreply@blogger.com (Nis) — Mon, 19 Nov 2007 08:40:00 +0000

You can use your voice for quite a number of things. A platoon of Danish soldiers used theirs for talking about how they shot up Taliban fighters and shouting Oh-Yeahs when an aircraft bombed the Taliban position.

The press officers immediately put their voice in unsecure, yet grave modes and assured the public that this was professional as well as human use of the vocal cords as venting off.

The cacophony of Danish free press (as in, you get a paper showed into your hand whereever you go, fuelled by advertising - Denmark has at least 4 of these daily news-for-nothing outlets) uses their voices to probe the Army officials unsecurity - and raise the voice like a tattle-tale kindergarden boy "Now, he just said that this might be offensive to some. DID YOU HEAR THAT?!"

The resulting chatter of various voices in the blogosphere and the news-cycle that feeds off this essential non-story does the job: illustrates how the Danish public (opinion) is basically unprepared for sending people in to combat. The Danish Strategic Culture is risk adverse (as it probably should be), the perception of this in the media is solely focusing on the possible sensation of the story and the rest of us are forced to discuss whether it is okay to shout of joy whenever you kill someone your government sent you to kill, or if we should put our faces in somber moods.

It just leaves me with a whispering, nagging thought: This idea, that it might be offensive that Danish soldiers shout when they win, is in reality a sign of how we underestimate the Taliban, see them as inferior. The "public opinion" seems to say: "Don't be happy when you off them, they can't help it and they're a backward, poor bunch that we should kill with dignity and compassion". And I'm pretty sure both the Taliban as well as their adversaries in Helmand Province would laugh at that interpretation.

Dengang da far var forsvarsteknologianalytiker...

noreply@blogger.com (Nis) — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 21:32:00 +0000

Dagbladet Information ser ud til at v�re vendt tilbage til udgangspunktet i sin digitale strategi: At lade alle artikler v�re frit tilg�ngelige. Efter et par �rs flirt med betaling for digitalt indhold ser det ud til at arkiverne igen blevet sluppet ud p� cyber-gr�s. Det betyder ogs� at et par korte indl�g fra min tid som freelance forsvarsanalytiker p� SU stikker hovedet frem igen.

Jeg er mest glad for min forudsigelse af at kortr�kkende jord-til-jord krydsermissiler af Silkworm typen var den st�rste missiltrussel ved USA's invasion af Irak. Selvom det godt nok kun blev til et smadret bolv�rk et sted i Kuwait og ikke s� meget andet s� holdt det stik. Den anden artikel om taktiske kernev�ben var til geng�ld illustreret af en fin tegning af Per Marquard Otzen.

Ak ja, det var tider...

Bare en lillebitte atombombe

Missilaksen

Free business idea for you: Eradicating poppy through urban hipness

noreply@blogger.com (Nis) — Tue, 06 Nov 2007 12:38:00 +0000

So what about this idea I had this morning:

Poppy-growing in Afghanistan is a huge problem, on the rise after the ousting of the Taliban, who were quite effective at keeping it checked. Now, the Taliban capitalise on the poppy, just like a proud line of warlords before them, selling it off to drug-peddlers and buying weapons to fight NATO.

A lot of half-committed politicians have since then suggested that we buy the opium off the farmers instead of burning as we do now and alienating the Afghans further. But of course that won't work, because no western government so far has been willing to use millions and millions to buy poppies and burning them.

The solution could be the good old market. Why not stimulate the Afghan farmer to grow sorghum, wheat, corn, whatever, paying huge overprice, matching and even exceeding the poppy price pound by pound (which isn't really that much in the first stage of heroin production, one could add). Now, the neat trick here would be selling these crops (in the form of flour, half-and-whole processed products) to the politically and socially conscious western middle-class as "Afghan anti-drug goods", like you are able to further ecological and social welfare by buying Max Havelaar products and such.

This would take a hefty first investment and protection of the farmers for a while. Furthermore the customer demographic might not be that large to buy off all the products, but it would at least be a more productive way of countering the drug problem in Afghanistan.

Fly-by to fame

noreply@blogger.com (Nis) — Fri, 02 Nov 2007 15:17:00 +0000

Recently it was publicised that Denmark had had a brush in with the new aggressive Russian strategic bomber circus, touring the world at the time (See: "The Good Ol' War and the Bad New One").

But nobody picked up on the implications for Danish intelligence. If Russia resurges as a powerful player on the world-stage, our geographic location will once again provide us with an advantage. In the Cold War our bargaining chip was SIGINT and shipsightings and such. If we're lucky, Putin will play that back in our hands....

Don't mention the war

noreply@blogger.com (Nis) — Thu, 01 Nov 2007 23:01:00 +0000

The election is on in Denmark once again. Last time it happened was in 2005 and I was blogging a bit back then as well. Makes you feel experienced and a bit old to have been in the "blogosphere" that long.

Now, all signs point to this election also being almost void of serious discussions or real interest in the utility of force from a Danish perspective. Since then the Danes have withdrawn from Iraq (save for a helicopter detachment) and are manning up in Afghanistan, casualties have risen and more and more people know young men who have been off for 6 months. It will change Danish strategic culture, no doubt, but as with all changes of culture it will be silent and we won't know until we have moved into yet another phase. However, I think it would suit politicians of all colours and creeds to engage with the question (as always it is only veteran, old male politicians that take on or are assigned positions as defence spokespersons).

UPDATE:
A good quote that came tome me just as I had finished writing this above. Robert Kagan on EU's use of military power:
"The incapacity to respond to threats leads not only to tolerance. It can also lead to denial".

That was the old culture, let's see if politicians can forge the new one actively.

Cheney's Law

noreply@blogger.com (Nis) — Wed, 17 Oct 2007 15:01:00 +0000

Cheney's Law, a PBS documentary available online, looks at the effort to expand the US presidential powers during wartime. Looks very interesting.